How to Calculate Your True Runway

By Nikita Kapoor — Feb 24, 2026

Most founders calculate runway with a simple formula: cash in bank divided by monthly burn. That number feels precise. It's also dangerously wrong.

Why Confidence Intervals Matter

Instead of asking how many months of runway do we have, you should ask what's the probability we survive 18 months.

The FounderConsole Approach

Connect your financial data and we automatically calculate your baseline runway distribution with P10/P50/P90 confidence bands.