Monte Carlo Simulations: A Founder's Guide

By Arjun Rao — Feb 18, 2026

Monte Carlo simulation sounds like something from a physics textbook. In practice, it's one of the most practical tools a startup founder can use.

What It Actually Does

A Monte Carlo simulation runs your model thousands of times, each time picking slightly different values for each input based on realistic ranges. After 1,000 runs, you get a distribution of answers.

Why Founders Should Care

Investors increasingly expect probabilistic thinking. With Monte Carlo, you can answer: We have a 75% probability of reaching 12 months.