When to Raise: Timing Your Series A

By Nikita Kapoor — Jan 29, 2026

Timing your fundraise is one of the highest-stakes decisions a founder makes.

The Traditional Approach Is Broken

Most founders use rules of thumb that ignore the most important variable: uncertainty.

A Probabilistic Framework

Instead of asking when should I raise, ask at what point does the probability of running out of cash before closing a round exceed my risk tolerance.