Startup Survival Simulator

Free tool — no login required. Run 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations to calculate your startup's probability of survival. Get AI-powered recommendations in seconds.

• No data stored
• Results in about 3 seconds
• 1,000 simulations per run

What you enter

Cash on hand, monthly revenue, monthly expenses, growth rate, monthly churn, planned hires, and optional fundraising timing and amount. The simulator models 1,000 possible futures from your current numbers.

What you get

• Monte Carlo Engine — 1,000 probabilistic simulations model uncertainty in growth, margins, and costs.
• Survival Probability — Odds of survival at 6, 12, 18, and 24 months with confidence intervals and runway P10/P50/P90 bands.
• AI Recommendations — Strategic recommendations based on your specific financial trajectory.

Related free tools

Also try the startup runway calculator and the default alive or default dead test — both free, no account required. When you're ready for live data and ongoing forecasts, sign up for FounderConsole.